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Investing

“Santa Claus Rally” season is here. But should you care?

November 5, 2025
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Every year around November, financial news outlets start talking about the “Santa Claus Rally” — the idea that markets tend to do well in November, December, and often April, too.

And yes — if you look at 50–70 years of history, those months have been strong.

But with everything you’ve worked for… that’s not the most important story.

Here’s what I care about more for you:

I want you to enjoy investing, not stress over it.

I want you to feel safe in retirement, not reactive.

I want you to be grounded, not pulled into hype.

If you take anything from this topic, take this:

Retirement success is built on consistency — not one good month.

Why Wall Street talks about seasonality at all

Markets have habits because people have habits.

Fund managers rebalance.

People get bonuses.

New money goes in at year-end.

Investors tend to feel optimistic around the holidays.

So yes — November and December often look good.

But this doesn’t mean those months are a formula.

They are just patterns.

And your retirement cannot depend on patterns.

It needs a plan.

You don’t need one good month…

you need many good years

You’re not trying to impress a trading desk.

You’re not trying to “beat the market” in a random 30-day window.

You have one mission:

make your resources last for your entire life, and give yourself peace while doing it.

That means avoiding whiplash.

It means avoiding decision fatigue.

It means avoiding emotional investing.

Consistent investing has outperformed trend-chasing over and over again.

And more importantly — consistent investing lets you actually enjoy your retirement.

The real financial work this time of year is quieter and more meaningful

If you want something seasonal to focus on — here’s what actually matters right now:

  • Are you on track with your RMDs?
  • Should you harvest any tax losses before year end?
  • Is your withdrawal plan still aligned with your spending?
  • Do you have enough cash for next year’s lifestyle?
  • Does your allocation need rebalancing?

These are not loud, flashy, headline topics.

But these are the quiet controls that protect your retirement.

This is where your “edge” lives.

What really protects a retiree’s money long-term?

There are three truths I’ve watched play out over and over again with retired families:

1) Early losses in retirement matter more than seasonal “good months.”

It’s called sequence-of-returns risk.

If you get unlucky early, it can shave years off how long your money lasts.

So guarding against downside is more important than chasing a December pop.

2) Your spending consistency matters more than your return consistency.

Many retirees don’t realize this.

But small overspending — repeated — is far more dangerous than missing one “Santa Claus Rally.”

Because spending compounds too.

3) Retirees still benefit from compounding — for decades

People forget this.

If you’re 65, your money may be invested for 20–30 years.

20–30 years of compounding matters more than 2 “historically strong” months.

The long arc of investing is what carries you.

The calmer the investing style, the better the retirement feels

I’ve never met a retired client who said:

“I wish I had been more reactive with my portfolio.”

But I’ve met many who said:

“I wish I had worried less.”

So from my heart to yours:

If you want to do the right thing this season — simplify.

Align your money with your values.

Rebalance.

Make sure next year’s income is covered.

Keep investing steady.

Stay in the market — calmly — through all seasons.

Your financial life is not a holiday stunt.

It’s a lifelong partnership between your money, your goals, and your peace.

A simple 5-step checklist (gentle, grounded, practical)

  1. Reaffirm how much income you need from your portfolio next year
  2. Hold that year’s spending in cash or Treasuries for safety
  3. Rebalance the rest back to your targets
  4. Automate as many decisions as possible
  5. Unsubscribe from the drama

You deserve investing that feels peaceful — not pressured.

Final thought

If you enjoy the Santa Claus Rally data, wonderful — it’s a fun piece of market history.

But don’t feel like you have to “do something” about it.

The best portfolios in retirement are built on time, patience, and repeatable habits — not market folklore.

Your job now is not to chase the best month.

Your job now is to give yourself a financial life that supports how you want to spend your time, your energy, and your precious years.

You’ve worked too hard to spend retirement chasing trends.

Steady. Simple. Sustainable.

That’s the real win.

Registered Representative of Sanctuary Securities Inc. and Investment Advisor Representative of Sanctuary Advisors, LLC.– Securities offered through Sanctuary Securities, Inc., Member FINRA, SIPC. –  Advisory services offered through Sanctuary Advisors, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. – Theorem Wealth Management is a DBA of Sanctuary Securities, Inc. and Sanctuary Advisors, LLC. This communication has not been reviewed for completeness or accuracy, does not necessarily reflect the views of Sanctuary Securities, Inc. or Sanctuary Advisors, LLC., and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any product, service, or issuer. Third party posts do not reflect the views of Theorem Wealth Management or Sanctuary Securities, Inc. or Sanctuary Advisors, LLC., and have not been reviewed for completeness and accuracy. All further communications from this representative must be sent from and received by [email protected]. For additional information, please refer to one of the following consumer websites: www.FINRA.org, www.SIPC.org.