With the current events going on globally we are seeing a lot of market volatility and this is scaring some investors. What we want to ask is if all this volatility is a really bad thing or if it could be good for you. Additionally, we'll help explain why volatility like what we're seeing now is normal. All that and more on this episode of The Retire Once Show. A Retirement Podcast designed to help get you to retirement and stay retired.
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- Johnathan Rankin CRPC® CEPA®, Founder & CEO,
- Melissa Rankin - Wealth Management Advisor
- Theorem Wealth Management, Financial Advisor Dallas Texas
- Retire Once Show - 2022 Retirement Podcast Series
7:14 - Volatility is normal
9:15 - Bear Market vs Market Correction vs Recession
15:14 - Why you shouldn't panic sell
17:17 - Loss aversion in investing
19:35 - Long term gains in a down market
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So, the market's been falling and we're hearing words likecorrections, bear markets, recessions, but what are those really even mean? Andmost importantly, what does that mean for your retirement investments? We'regoing to dig into all that in more on this episode of the retire one show.Hello and welcome to the retire.
Want show the show designed to help you get to retirement.But most importantly, stay retired. I mean, I was Jonathan Rankin. I'm joinedby my lovely cohost. Hi, I'm Melissa. And today we are talking all things,market volatility. I'm really excited. We've got a jam packed show for youtoday. But before we jump into that, do his favor, hit that subscribe button.
If you're watching us on YouTube, or if you're listening tous on apple or Spotify, make sure you hit that subscribe button. So you'renotified every time we drop a new episode. So how are we doing today? There isa lot going on in the world. Isn't there there's a lot going on in the world.And there's unfortunately, a lot of.
Sad bad. I don't know. Negative stuff, I guess is a betterway to sum it up. I mean, Ukraine markets, everything. Yeah. It seems like it'scoming at us from all angles right now. I think, you know, on top of top ofUkraine on top of the markets, Hi, gas prices due to inflation and oil. Andeverything happened for our upcoming road trip.
This weekend, we've got the fed on the verge of raisingrates and away. Remember COVID COVID is still a thing in some places. So, uh,we still have that in the backdrop. If I think the world would crumble. If wegot another one. I think it probably would. I personally could not handleanother, another thing.
Or if we go back to schools being shut down, I know for afact I can not handle that. No. I mean either, and not only that, we still havea midterm election to come this year, so there's a lot of things that feelextremely overwhelming right now. When thinking about investing retirementplanning, you name it, you throw all that stuff in the mix.
Yeah, there's always going to be some other thing that comesat us. So it just, it feels like right now we're in this period of volatilityin the market and in life. And it just feels like every single time thosehappen, the news always makes it feel like it's never going to. Well, the newsis doomsday. I mean, anything you think could go wrong, just turn on the newsand it's already happening and going to happen again and going to get worse.
I remember 2008, when the mark was falling, then, and itwent bottom in oh nine and every headline for some reason was always at themarket's going to go go further. It's got more to lose. It's going to collapseour banking. System's going to crash. And you know, we're going to have to relyon gold and guns to survive.
I mean, that's where we're headed. If you turn on the news,even with gas prices, they say they're still gonna be, yeah, I hear you heartalks of $8 a gallon gas in certain places of the country. And in the beginningof the pandemic, we had, you know, the market fell by 34% in the first 33 days.And on top of the market correcting, it felt like this pandemic was never goingto end.
Nobody understood at that time. And it just always feels.When we're in bad times, it just feels like it's always going to get worse.Doesn't it? I think it feels that way because the news makes it feel that way.All of the media that we get and it's coming at us from all angles, not justyou turn on the TV anymore, and that's where you get the news.
It's you open your computer, you turn on your phone, you'redoing anything online and you're getting social media coming at you with morebad news. Variations of the already bad news getting worse. I mean, there's somuch, and it, it seems like even when it's not investment related, it's just,life-related bad time.
Just always seemed to never end. I mean, I think back tolast year, the deep freeze here in Texas, when, uh, when every storm, again,that is exactly what we call it. And I remember that first. Wait, you know, wewalked out the first day, the snow started falling and we actually were able toenjoy it for what, 30 minutes, long enough to get the kids bundled up, whichtook about an hour.
And then we walked outside for about 10 minutes and thenthey were cold. So yeah, about a half hour, I guess, give or take in the newscame that they're going to be rolling blackouts in Texas and we lost power. Weexpected the whole time that it's going to come back on that night, becausethere's no way they're going to leave us without power that he said multipletimes when I wanted to leave that she didn't want to leave the city.
And I said, there's no way they're never going to let thiscontinue. They're never going to let this go on. It's freezing. It's freezing.So we got to the point in our house where we were. It was what 20, it was 20 or19 degrees in our, in our living room. Water bowl actually froze solid a blockof solid ice when we lost power water.
And we actually stayed in the house that night for the firstnight where it was, you know, both of us. Um, my mother-in-law's a, her mom,our two kids. And our dog all piled onto one bed with pretty much every blanketthat we could just to survive that about five layers of clothes on all of us.And then it just, even after that first night, and we were able to go find aplace that had power and we were able to stay somewhere, even then, it feltlike it would never end.
And it just, it felt like those days lasted weeks and itjust continued. Like we didn't know when we're ever going to get power back. Wenever knew. Is our house going to be livable because, uh, we had about 31busted pipes in our house, 31 pipes that our house froze and burst. So wedidn't have running water for a very long, I just want to throw in if you'recatching us for the first time, our house is about a hundred years old.
It's not like we have some modern home and it's like, wow,that's crazy. How did that happen? When our house is a hundred years old? Sothat adds a little bit to it. We came to find out. We have no insulation, otherslew of problems, I guess you could say. Kind of brings us back to just thingsfeeling like they're never going to end if our house is so old that if they dida new story on it, it would be this house survived so long because it drank aCoke, every single David's life, or went on a long walk every single day, youknow, one of those stories, but yes, it just felt at that time, like it wasnever going to end.
And right now it feels like the world. Issues are nevergoing to end the market's going to keep going down. This Ukraine invasion byRussia is never going to end and gas prices are never going down and it justseems like it's always going to get worse. But I think back to even the firstday that Ukraine got invaded and the market was down over 900 points, but thenactually rallied at the end of that first day and day.
Two of that invasion, the market at the time had the bestday of the year at that time. So it's. You you look back and go, well, the bestthing that you could have done was ignored the market and con and vacation, butit's not that easy to do that creative course. No, not at all. And you know,what's not easy to do is ignore everything, especially when things getvolatile.
But the reality is that volatility is normal. I mean, youknow, we're expected that the market over time has volatile periods. What's notnormal are the three back-to-back two years of amazing growth that we had from2019 to last. Yeah, you have to go back to what the mid nineties, mid to latenineties to have three better consecutive years than what we had.
So that's not normal, but what we're going through,unfortunately it's painful, but it's, it's, it is normal couple on the pandemicthat we've been going through. Do you think that plays any part in why the lastthree consecutive years have been, you know, the, the pandemic, just, it addedvault volatility in the middle of 2020, but then from there we've had so much.
Easing financial policy by the fed that really helped propup risk assets. It almost felt like there was nothing that was going to stopgrowth assets because the fed kept printing money and kept infusing the, themarket with liquidity. And so that made it very easy for the market. Continueits rise. And now that we're seeing the fed slow down on its quantitativeeasing, and they're going to essentially start raising rates here soon, that'sa tightening signal to the economy, into the.
And so that's why we're starting. That's why we start to seevolatility at the beginning of the year, what we're seeing in Ukraine andRussia that just added to those pressures. But we were coming into this year.We knew that the fed was going to have to combat inflation somehow. And nowthat we're seeing things thrown around like corrections and bear markets and,you know, the talk of a possible recession.
Yeah. That's where people start seeing their accountbalances go down. And the concern really start to creep in, especially for thosepanic. I mean, and especially it's normal. Absolutely. Especially for thosethat are near or in retirement, it really becomes a, you know, a worry that isat the top as, at the top of the mind when you're using that money that you'vesaved for 20 or 30 years.
And now it's, you need to hold onto it. Now we're starting.It started to go down. So you mentioned, um, a correction bear market, thingslike that for everybody out there, what, or I guess, how can you explain thedifference to us? What's what's the difference between a bear market and acorrection? I mean, it sounds like we're due for a correction, but does thatmean we're headed toward a bear market?
So technically a correction is when the market falls by 10.So once it hits that 10%, that's what they define as a correction. So when youhear that on the, on, on TV and people talking about, well, we're incorrectionmode, that means that that market or investment has, is down 10% from its high.So right now we're seeing a correction in the S and P and the Dow Jonesindustrial average.
And when it comes to bear markets, that's where the marketfalls by over 20%, which we're seeing in the next. Now going back tocorrections, this is the 25th time since 1950 that the market has dropped over10%. So it is normal. Okay. You know, on average, I mean that's yeah. 25th timein what? 72 years. So it, on average it happens every 410 days.
And, uh, it's actually, it's been 635, so we're a littleoverkill. Yeah. So, um, the thing about corrections is that 68% of the time,the market actually is positive 12 month. Now there is the possibility that wego into a bear market, which means that 10% decline becomes a 20% decline. So acorrection doesn't necessarily mean that we're heading into a barrel.
No, it doesn't at all. It's, you know, we have to, we haveto go through a correction to get to a bear market. Yeah. Because you know,going down by 10%, well, you have to go down by 10 to get down by 20. So, uh,48% of the time that we experienced a 10% drop, it does continue further and gointo a bear market.
But there. Yeah, half the time, but bear markets are normalbear markets, you know, since 1928, there've been 28 bear markets. Now thoseare a lot more painful because on average they typically go down by about 35%.So they're much more difficult to stomach. Yeah, there are a lot. Absolutelybecause they, they last nine or over nine months.
So a 9.6 months is actually how long they last. So. Yeah. Ifyou, if you get pregnant and have the baby, you know, odds, are you, you wentthrough that, uh, that you know, that bear market, you kind of made it throughboy. Maybe just think about naming them there. I don't know. So we usually geta bear market every 3.6 years.
And since 1945, there have been 16 bear markets. So one,every three years and four months is typically what we see. So when was ourlast barrel? So the last bear market that we had was in, during the pandemicand March of 2020. So we did see a, a bear market there. It obviously quicklyrebounded and the bull market continued and to what we're seeing.
And so kind of like a mini one there, if you will, it was,it was fast, but it was definitely not many, many in terms of days, but, uh, itwas, it was impactful due to the velocity of what we saw of how far it wentdown and how fast. But those, those two terms get thrown around a lotcorrections in bear markets.
And, you know, a lot of people have confusion about, okay,if we're in a bear market, does that mean that we're in recession and. If we,you know, what does that really mean? When looking at being in a bear marketjust means your financial assets are down or an investment is down by 20%. Thathas nothing really to do with a recession.
A recession is an economic indicator of two consecutive quartersof GDP decline. So the world around us, not just the financial sector. Exactly.So things like economic output wages, industrial production, retail, sales,those all go into. That GDP number, which the stock market doesn't go into ourGDP number.
So the market can actually be down, but that doesn'tnecessarily mean we're in a recession. In fact, you know, during the past 12recessions, the average return on the S and P 500 was actually 3.8%. And stockshave actually been up four of the past nine recession. So just because we're ina recession, doesn't mean the market's going to go down.
And just because we're in a bear market doesn't mean we'regoing to go into a recession. Okay. Okay. So we're at correction would have tohappen before we could hit a bear market. So does a bear market have to happenbefore we hit a recession? No, it they're completely separate things. In fact,uh, since 1950, we've had 21 market corrections that have taken place without arecession.
So it is very possible that we can have. Have a decline inthe stock market, but not have an economic decline in GDP. Those things arecompletely separate. Whereas we would have to see a correction to have a bearmarket. Exactly. So corrections and bear markets, those are in the investment world,recession that's GDP, economic indicators, uh, unemployment, things like that.
No. When you start seeing a decline in GDP, What that meansis that companies are scaling back on production. They're scaling back onemployment, so it easily could lead. But it's not a, it's not an a definiteHey, we're in a recession. So the market's going to go down. It's just, we'veexperienced that in the past, just recently with the pandemic where we brieflydipped into a recession and the market fell pretty quickly.
Obviously we experienced experienced it in 2008, 2009, andthen going back 2000 to 2002 during those. We had recessions in bear markets atthe same time, but historically it's not always a, you know, a must that bearmarket means a recession. We're just used to seeing it because we've gonethrough so much bad, I guess you could say over the last few years that we'reused to, or I guess it's assumptive that they go together, but that's notnecessarily the case.
Exactly. So there with all the headlines that are out there,I think there is a lot of. A lot of questions about what should you actually bedoing with where the market is today? How volatile it's been, you know, thetalks of bear markets and recessions and corrections. Looking at a statementmost likely every month or the past couple that have been declining in valueeven every few days, it's easy to think about, okay, do I need to do something?
What should I do? And usually the first thing that alwayscomes to mind, everybody always thinks get out. Let's just sell. Let's waituntil the market gets better. And there's a, a, there's a great chart by, uh,by Ritholtz wealth management. Talks about reasons to sell. And, uh, guesswhat? We actually have charts on the screen.
Our production value is amazing. If you're not watchingthis, you're only listening to it. Oh, you should have YouTube. You're missingout. We've got this amazing chart on the screen now, but uh, if you look atthis, there have been so many reasons since the bottom in 2009 to sell, I mean,things like the talks of a government shutdown Brexit, uh, remember the BP oilspill.
There were so many. Times where, you know, the Dow fell byover a thousand points in, was that March, uh, or I'm sorry, the, uh, yeah,early 2018, the Mar the Dow fell by 1100 points and it was the biggest clientever, you know, was that a reason to sell, but ultimately over time, what thisis showing is that you go through all those periods.
The market is higher than where it was during that period.So I think looking at what you should do panicking and selling. Just everythingis just a very, very bad strategy. The important thing about that is you justdon't want to have a knee jerk reaction to anything you see on the screen.Technically, if you see a little bit of, you know, falling that's okay, that'snormal.
And it is normal to feel like I don't want to lose money. Imean, there's a whole behavioral science called loss aversion that we all feel.So loss aversion is the thought that it is better. To not lose $20 than it isto just find $20 because you felt like you lost it. So losing is worse thangaining.
Losing feels a lot worse than gaining. Absolutely. That isexactly what nobody, nobody really has celebrated actually. I mean, if youthink about it, Just lose something because you already had it. Well, thinkabout how many people really celebrated over the past couple of years, pastthree years, we've had this tremendous market growth in their accounts,probably if they were diversified and they invested in stocks, they, they gain.
They're probably at an all time high back in November, oreven earlier this year. And. They're still, if they look at their accountbalance still higher than where they were maybe 18 months ago, but it doesn'tfeel that it was saying the same at all. And there's no celebration of the, Heylook, how far we've come.
It's oh my gosh. Look how much we've lost so far andinsurance companies. This is their entire business model. This is the reasonwhy commercial show. Trees landing on cars to scare you to say, well, just payus a couple hundred dollars a month so that if this happens to you, we're herefor you. We're here for you and whatever they say the, I mean, I you've got Mr.
Mayhem. Yep. He talks about, uh, he's all the whole thing ofhim is I'm going to scare you into making sure, you know, if one of these badthings happen, the army garb, I don't know. Okay. Maybe he's not the lizard.That's for sure. And I do like the lizard. I have no clue what flow does, butyou know, there's, she should be a chef or something with the white smock,either way.
That's what insurance companies they play on that emotion ofloss, aversion. They want you to know if something happens and a tree falls onyour house or your house burns down or whatever, it may be. All your pipesburst. Or all your pipes burst that they're going to be there to help you. Soyou don't have to absorb that large loss, but you're paying a small fee everysingle month.
So that's what insurance companies do. It's totally normalto feel that, you know, to feel averse, to loss, to not want to lose money iscompletely normal. I don't want to lose anything money or otherwise. And Ithink that's most people, but. I'm just going to sell everything and wait untilthe market gets better.
I hear this every single market correction. When we go backto that slide of every reason to sell, I hear this every single one of thoselittle periods, I just want to sell everything and wait till the market isbetter. But what does that even? What does that mean? When is it better? What'sbetter. What is, that's what I always ask?
What is better is better when the market is. Because I'venever heard of a investing philosophy that says you want to sell low buy high.And that is never been a recipe for investment success, not our motto. No. Andthat, but that's really what you're doing if you're selling and you're just,you want the market to get better.
And it's just, it's just a recipe for investment disaster.And, you know, I just never understand how to quantify that, but if theycomment. And it always reminds me of. When we were younger in the last time wewent black Friday shopping for some aging, us seriously, some doorbuster dealthat we were, you know, in the mood for at the time.
And you get there at the time, you a dollar 50 DVDs. Thosewere the no, but I think it was like a TV or something we wanted. And I mean,we couldn't afford a TV back then. No mistake. And it must've been the DVD.Well, it's like going black Friday shop. And telling, telling the people inline, you know, I'm going to wait till the line dies down, but I'm still goingto get the doorbuster, tell somebody who's camped out for two days to get thatdeal.
You know what? I'm going to come back when it's open. Yeah.And you're not going to get the same deal, just like the market. You're youstill today to wait till things get better. You're not going to buy stocks onsale. Like they are when they're down. They've at that point, you've missed asale. And so.
Instead of looking at stocks pick on it is big red tagsstocks on sale. Every every single time that you go into a store. And I knowyou, when you go into a store and you see those big sale signs, you run tothose. But when the market is flashing a big sale sign, basically saying as Itry to save money, no.
What I'm saying is that when you see a sales side, it drawsyou to that, but people don't see that when it comes to the market, when themarket's down, they don't look at it as it like, like it's on. But if you missout on some of the best days in the market that can dramatically impact yourlongterm investment success, there have actually been studies done on this.
And you know, if you look back at the best days, over thepast 20 years, half of the best days in the S and P 500 actually came during abear market, it would be like me saying. Well, some of our happiest days beingmarried were when our house was, had all the pipes burst and we had no place tostay some of our worst day.
That's exactly the thought is that those looking back, thosewill be looked at as our best days when we had no running water. And we weretrying to figure out how we'll feel that way. At least not for very long time,but, but an interesting that the market has played that way. And that, that isexactly what.
Missing out on those best days can have dramatic long-termeffects. There's a piece by black rock that, uh, that looks at. Can you get theSP from 2001 or I'm sorry, 2002 to 2021. And if you invest a hundred thousanddollars in the S and P five, And just stayed invested. Didn't touch it. Didn'thave any knee jerk reactions, move, anything, do anything.
Didn't look at it. Just, you just ignored it for that entiretimeframe. You would have had $616,000 at the end of that period. However, ifyou miss just the best five days, so five days, one week. You decided I'm goingto go on vacation, but before I do, I'm going to sell everything, sit on thisislands and I'll buy back when I'm yeah, I'll buy back in when, uh, you know, I'mback from vacation, those five days you would have instead of having $616,000,you would actually have $389,000.
Wow. Over just five days, five days. Now, if you missed thebest 10 days, it's actually worse. You went from six 16 down to 2 82. So let's takea look at those top days in the market. So there was a study by JP Morgan andthey actually looked at the 10 best days in the market from 2002 through thisyear.
You look at these, the top five, I mean, October 30, October13th, 2008 is the best day in the market or the past during this timeframe,when the market was up 11.6% in October of 2000. Uh, anything in 2008 seemscrazy. This is what five months from the bottom. That's what I, yeah, I meanthe event, the second best day up 10.8%, October 28th, 2000.
Then we get to something more recent. The third best day,March 24th, 2020, right after the pandemic, the bottom of the market on thepandemic was the March 23rd. So this was the day after of 9.4%. I don't thinkanybody at that time thought that the pandemic was going to get any better, butthat's when we had, you know, essentially the government come in and assistwith their large stimulus package, things like that.
So it made sense that we saw that rally, but at the time.Everybody. We were locked down. We didn't know what was going on. We had tostay at home with our kids. We shut down. So you look at these top five days.It makes sense to want to miss those because they were during some really roughtimes, but just missing those top five costs you well, over a hundred thousanddollars in just that one investment.
Now, if you had multiple, if you have a million dollars,what does that mean? And that's now you're talking about hundreds of thousandsof dollars. So it's, it is important to. Remember that some of those best dayshappen during a bad period, but that doesn't mean you can't miss out on thoseor else you're really going to impact your long-term return.
So it's important to see them through it is. And so what canyou do? What should you do? Yeah, this is just, no, this isn't a us sayingdon't make any adjustments to your investments. That's not what we're doing.No, no, we're not saying no. It's, it's just saying don't make any kneereactions to, you know, going all in, in selling everything or buying allstocks.
You're doing one way or the other is never an efficientstrategy. You know, to me, what you've got to do right now is you want tounderstand how much risk is too much risk. Now this should be an exercise thatyou. Regularly. Yeah. On a, on a routine basis, that's baked into yourretirement plan, but go back to that, go back to your financial plan, whichshould have an investment strategy along with it.
And that should tell you what should your asset allocationbe based on how much risk you're willing and able to take knowing, you know,what you're tolerant of. If you're, if you can't handle. 10% or a 15% dropbecause it makes you want to sell everything or panic or do something that youshouldn't do financially.
Then maybe that is too much risk and figure out what thatis, but always bring it back to your financial. And, you know, don't try toswitch your investment strategy, trying to always switch it up and do the nextbest thing as, as you would say. And you often do, you don't want to try to getcute with it?
No, it's, it's like that scene from a Hafiz space where he'strying to navigate in and out of traffic. And every lane he goes into becomesthe slow. It becomes this loss and it happens to me all the time with driving,but just, you don't want to do that with an investment plan. You know, the goalis you create this retirement plan.
You create an investment strategy that, that works withinthat. And then you stick to that. You can use this time while stocks are down,you can use this time to rebalance. Uh, you can use this time to make sure thatyou're continuing to save and your dollar cost averaging in. If you're notretired, you're continuing to save.
Your 401k is absolutely important. At this time. I get thequestion a lot with the market going down, SHA. You know, my contributions, my401k. Absolutely not. Absolutely not. This is a time where you're buying inwhen it's cheaper. And one thing to make sure that people are not doing. Rightnow we've got a lot of stocks that are down 50, 60, 70%.
And you know, there are dozens of those. Don't try andcherry pick these, you know, I like home value traps just because somethingfell by 50, 60, 70% doesn't mean that it's just going to go back to where itwas, because there's a reason why it's down so much. So more accurately, maybeit shouldn't have been priced so high initially.
Exactly. And so that's, and that's what we're seeing rightnow. It's easy to get caught up in. Look how far this stock is down. The initialthought is the inverse of, well, if I just buy this and it gets back to whereit was, look how much I'll make it's there's no guarantee it's going to getback. Not at all.
So, so again, don't buy stocks on sale. No, you want to buystocks on sale. Just be careful of the stocks you're buying on sale. It's a.You know, you go to a secondhand store and things are a lot cheaper than if youbought them on retail, but you might have holes in the jeans. That's the wayyou want to look at it.
Uh, just remember volatility is normal. What we're goingthrough is normal since the bottom of 2009. So since March 9th, 2000. Themarket has had seven corrections, one bear market, and now almost two bearmarkets and 16 drops a 5% or more mixed into that timeframe over the past 13years. And yet we still over that timeframe, we've still reached new highs.
So stay consistent. Stick to your plan, stick to yourretirement strategy. If you don't have a retirement plan or you just want helprevisiting yours, feel free to reach out to us. We're going to link to that inthe show notes below, you can also head to retire once show.com to access allof our show notes and everything we talked about today.
Before we get out of here, do us a favor, hit that subscribebutton. If you're watching us on YouTube, or if you're listening to us on appleor Spotify, hit that subscribe button and make sure to rate it five stars. Um,Jonathan Rankin, and this was the retire one show I'm Melissa Rankin. Thank youfor joining us there.
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